Charleston SC Real Estate Blog

 Hello All, I have enclosed a forecast for the remainder of this week. Rates continue to rise slowly, and then fall back down. If you ever need any help working on estimated payments for your clients you can go to www.VirtualMortgage.biz to get any information you would need. 
 
Forecast for the Week

After last week’s thin economic calendar, where Stock market action and technical factors had a big impact on Bonds and home loan rates, this coming week brings a much juicier economic report agenda.
Retail Sales for April will be reported on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This widely watched measure of consumer inflation will take special significance, now that the Fed has signaled their current rate cutting cycle may be at an end. On Thursday comes a read on the new construction housing market, with Housing Starts and Building Permits. We will have to see if these reports can keep Bonds above their 50- and 100-Day Moving Averages…as seen in the chart below. If the reports are economically weak or negative, Bond prices and home loan rates should hold their ground, and perhaps even find some improvement.
Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower…and vice versa. And right now, there’s an important story breaking that will be very important to stay tuned in to. Last Friday, oil prices reached a lofty $126 a barrel, and Goldman Sachs is forecasting that black gold could rise even higher, perhaps as high as $150 - $200 a barrel in the next twelve months. If they are right, the inflationary effects of high oil prices could pressure Bond prices to move lower, causing home loan rates to move higher. This will be a story to watch carefully in the days and months ahead.

    Rates today are as follows:
 
   30 year fixed/Conforming: 5.75%
   30 year fixed/Jumbo: 7.25%
   7 year arm/Conforming: 5%
   7 year arm/Jumbo: 6.625%
 
Thanks,
Matthew Mieras, xco
Virtual Mortgage
843-849-8188 Office
843-670-5512 Cell
Matt@VirtualMortgage.biz  

Consumer confidence fell to a 25-year low, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, dropping from 69.5 in March to 62.6 in April. The reading is troubling because it’s regarded as an indicator of future consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
Sales of existing homes dropped 2% in March to an annual rate of 4.93 million units, the National Association of REALTORS® reported April 22. The median price of an existing home tumbled 7.7% from a year ago to $200,700, the second biggest decline since a record 8.4% drop in February.
Sales of new homes plunged 8.5% in March to an annual rate of 526,000 units, the slowest sales pace since October 1991, the Commerce Department said April 24. The median price of a new home dropped 13.3% from a year ago to $227,600, the biggest year-over-year price decline since a 14.6% plunge 38 years ago. At the current sales pace, it would take 11 months to deplete the national inventory of new homes.
Homebuyers didn’t get much mortgage rate relief as 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate loans edged up for the week ending April 24, Freddie Mac said in its weekly survey of mortgage lenders.
The demand for durable goods — big-ticket items expected to last three or more years — dipped 0.3% in March, a worse-than-expected showing, the Commerce Department said April 24. The last time orders fell for three consecutive months was from February to April of 2001, when the nation was sliding into the last recession.
The job front was a bit rosier, however, as new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 33,000 last week to 342,000, the Labor Department reported April 24. Economists had expected a rise of 3,000.
Economic news due this week includes another consumer confidence report on April 29 and a preliminary report on the nation’s first-quarter gross domestic product on April 30.
Economic data compiled from government reports and news services Bloomberg.com, msnbc.com, cnbc.com, cnn.money.com and Yahoo Economic Calendar.

Sales of existing homes unexpectedly rose 2.9% in February, the first increase in seven months, the National Association of REALTORS® said March 24. “The improvement is another sign that the market is stabilizing,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. The median existing-home sales price in February was $195,900, down 8.2% from a year earlier.
February sales of new single-family homes fell 1.8% to a 13-year low, the Commerce Department said March 26. The decline was slightly worse than expected. The median new-home sales price in February was $244,100, down 2.7% from the level of a year ago.
Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — fell 1.7% in February, worse than the 1% increase economists had predicted, the Commerce Department reported March 26. Demand for manufacturing equipment plunged 13.3%, the largest amount on record.
On March 27, the Commerce Department confirmed data showing that the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, crawled home at a 0.6% annual rate for the 2007 October-to-December quarter. In the prior quarter, GDP sizzled at 4.9%.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy, edged up just 0.1% in February, the weakest spending performance in 17 months, the Commerce Department said March 28. The modest gain was in line with forecasts.
For the week ending March 27, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages nudged downward, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.
For the week ending March 21, mortgage applications shot up 48.1%, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. Refinances surged 82.2% while purchase business improved 10.6%.
Economic news due out this week includes the highly anticipated unemployment report on April 4.